The Morning Call
7/25/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Hulking
Gains Continue For Meme Stocks & Mega-Caps; Gold Lags | ZeroHedge
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Stocks are
bubbling.
Speculation back
in full force.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/miss-market-wants-squeeze-you
Pain trade is still higher.
The latest from
Goldman’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/earnings-complacency-nvda-straddles-biggest-non-consensus-trade
This analyst says
sentiment is still contained.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-crazy-train-market/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
June durable goods
orders fell 9.3% versus expectations of down 10.8%; ex transportation, they
were up 0.2% versus up 0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-ex-transports-beat-expectations-june
June
new home sales were up 0.6% versus consensus of +1.0%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/24/new-home-sales-inch-up-0-6-in-june
The July flash
manufacturing PMI was 54.6 versus predictions o 52.9; the flash services PMI
was 55.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 54.6 versus 52.9.
International
June UK retail sales
grew 0.9% versus forecasts of +1.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6% versus +1.2%; the
July consumer confidence index was -19 versus -20.
July Japanese YoY
CPI was up 2.9% versus projections of +3.1%; YoY core CPI was +2.9% versus
+3.0%.
The July German
business climate index was 88.6 versus estimates of 89.0; the July current
conditions index was 86.5 versus 86.7.
Other
Mortgage
delinquencies slightly higher in June.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/ice-first-look-at-june-mortgage.html
Overnight
News
The dollar gained
after Donald Trump downplayed his clash with Jerome Powell over the Fed’s
renovation costs, saying it wasn’t reason enough to fire him. Trump said during
his visit to the Federal Reserve that it is a tough construction job, while
Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he
reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented
that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive,
and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he
believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three
names in mind for Powell's replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire
Powell which would be a big move.
The U.S. has
collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has
largely shouldered the bill for now, but that could change as firms gradually
adjust prices to account for the new tariffs that are the highest level we have
seen in decades.
India’s Commerce
Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US
ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his
“friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic
progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they'll be able to conclude a
"very consequential partnership".
Monetary
Policy
Why
Trump is wrong about monetary policy.
The
Fed’s dilemma over tariff tradeoffs.
https://www.ft.com/content/90652405-89af-44e4-9ff4-314dbe1125ef
Fiscal
Policy
What if the only tax was a national sales tax?
Tariffs
Trump’s
tariff deal with Japan is a loser for Americans.
https://reason.com/2025/07/23/trumps-deal-with-japan-is-another-loser-for-americans/
Tariffs don’t make American cars great again.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/tariffs-dont-make-american-cars-great-again/
Investing
Beware
meme stocks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/business/opendoor-krispy-kreme-meme-stocks.html
The best time to
invest.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-best-time-to-invest/
Crashing in the
absence of an actual market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crashing-absence-actual-market
Investors
regaining confidence in the economy.
Investors
May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Friday
morning humor.
10
Ways An AI Wife Is Better Than A Real One | Babylon Bee
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