The Morning Call
10/31/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the technical stats. (weak breadth
continues)
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
TLT trouble.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tlt-trouble-calm-volatility-meets-inflation-fear
Dollar at critical technical level.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-cross-matters
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The September Japanese
unemployment rate was 2.6% versus estimates of 2.5%; September preliminary
industrial production rose 2.2% versus +1.3%; September preliminary retail
sales were up 0.3%, in line; September YoY housing starts fell 7.3% versus
-8.5%; September YoY construction orders were up 34.7% versus +28.0%; October YoY
CPI was up 2.8% versus +2.7%; core CPI was also up 2.8% versus up 2.7%.
September German
retail sales grew 0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%.
The October
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus forecasts of 49.5; the
nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.1 versus 50.4; the general PMI was 50.0 versus
50.8.
The October EU
flash CPI was up 0.2%, in line.
October UK housing
prices increased 0.3% versus predictions of +0.1%.
Other
Using Zillow to track new home construction.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/trends-in-new-construction-home-sales.html
Inflation adjusted housing prices below 2022
peak.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-28.html
Using the AIER to track inflation.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/everyday-prices-up-2-2-since-jan-2025
A review of the
Fed regional bank services surveys point to a stagflationary recession.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/weighing-regional-fed-services-surveys.html
Seven scary charts on Halloween.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seven-scary-charts-frighten-investors-halloween
Overnight
News
China signals sharper pivot to consumption as
imbalances worsen.
The Japanese government is monitoring the yen
with a strong sense of urgency, Finance
Minister Satsuki Katayama said, sending her first clear warning on currency
movements since taking on her role.
Monetary
Policy
Bank of Canada cuts rates but says that is likely
the last one.
Ed Yardini thinks little of the current Fed
rationale on rates.
Fiscal
Policy
The US has never been austere.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/we-have-never-been-austere/
Big government is killing competition.
Shutdown off ramp.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/shutdown-offramp.php
Inflation
Is AI the tip of the coming inflation iceberg?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-tip-feds-coming-inflation-iceberg
The
Financial System
The new Basel Accord III banking rules could harm
US economy.
Funding stress event risk remains high.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/funding-stress-event-risk-remains-heightened
Tariffs
At last, senate reasserts its constitutional
authority.
Outline of US/South Korea trade deal.
What to know about the US/China rare earths
agreement.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/business/china-rare-earth-export-controls.html
Investing
Data centers must
be about more than data.
Why the year-end
rally should occur.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-stocks-could-gain-20-in-2025/
Things to consider
as year-end approaches.
https://humbledollar.com/2025/10/the-paradox-of-smart-money-decisions/
Understanding
gold.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5525138
The latest from
Howard Marks.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/30/look-under-hood
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard press release (MA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.38 beats by
$0.07.
Revenue of $8.6B
(+16.7% Y/Y) beats by $70M.
W.W.
Grainger press release (GWW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $10.21 beats by
$0.26.
Revenue of $4.7B
(+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $60M.
AbbVie press release (ABBV): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.86 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of
$15.78B (+9.1% Y/Y) beats by $200M.
AbbVie (ABBV) declared $1.73/share quarterly dividend, 5.5% increase from
prior dividend of $1.64.
Canadian
National Railway press
release (CNI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
C$1.83 beats by C$0.06.
Revenue of
C$4.17B (+1.5% Y/Y) beats by C$20M.
Canadian
National Railway (CNI) declared CAD 0.8875/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
T. Rowe
Price press
release (TROW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.81 beats
by $0.27.
Revenue of
$1.89B (+5.6% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Exxon
Mobil press
release (XOM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.88 beats
by $0.05.
Revenue of
$85.29B (-5.3% Y/Y) beats by $1.69B.
Apple press
release (AAPL): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.85 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of
$102.47B (+7.9% Y/Y) beats by $220M.
Apple (AAPL) declares $0.26/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
In
praise of oral hygiene.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/27-microbes-linked-pancreatic-cancer-major-study-finds
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